Long-term Variant Scenario Forecasts

• Scenario 1: High Vaccine Efficacy + No Strain - Assumes 25 million courses distributed per month in the future, and efficacy 95% after two doses, 50% after one dose. No new strain more transmissible than existing one(s). Precautions slowly reduced to the most lenient setting since September.
• Scenario 2: High Vaccine Efficacy + New Strain - Assumes 25 million courses distributed per month in the future, and efficacy 95% after two doses, 50% after one dose. New strain 1.5x transmissible than existing one(s). Precautions slowly reduced to the most lenient setting since September.
• Scenario 3: Fatigue+Hesitancy+ No Strain - Assumes current vaccine delivery rates but 50% of population in each category refuse to accept. Efficacy 95% after two doses, 50% after one dose. No new strain more transmissible than existing one(s). Precautions slowly reduced to the most lenient setting since May.
• Scenario 4: Fatigue+Hesitancy+ New Strain - Assumes current vaccine delivery rates but 50% of population in each category refuse to accept. Precautions slowly reduced to the most lenient setting since May. Efficacy 95% after two doses, 50% after one dose. New strain 1.5x transmissible than existing one(s). Precautions slowly reduced to the most lenient setting since May.